roBman (@nambor)

NOT Mobile First any more

"Mobile First" was a post by Luke Wroblewski that was a great step forward in wresting people's focus away from the PC.

http://www.lukew.com/ff/entry.asp?933

But sorry Luke, Mobile is dead!

Luke's post was a pivotal change as the smartphone moved to overtake the PC as the primary internet access device. But this post was written in 2009, and the revolution is still rolling along at a cracking pace. So here is the next step.

Building mobile and PC apps with PC tools is painful!
If you want a PC site then all you need are some pages of html. If you want a blog then there are a number of great blog tools like wordpress. If you want a complex site with a CMS then there are plenty of tools for that too. For most of them you can just add some extra style sheets and with a few hacks or a plugin you can extend it to support a range of common mobile devices like iPhones and Androids. But this is not what these systems are designed from the ground up to do. Each time you add or change things you are adding complexity, not just re-configuring things. This is just painful and leads to hack upon hack.

Mobile first does make better mobile/PC experiences
So I completely agree. Planning for the Mobile slice of your user experiences first hones your thinking, draws you away from a PC focus and encourages you to create more flexible, context relevant solutions.

But that's not what you need now!
If you're building something that drives people to visit a public website, that you invite to sign-up, so they can then interact with and manage their accounts, content and applications then you need to support multiple roles and multiple devices being used in multiple places. This isn't just mobiles anymore. The mainstream mix now includes PCs, Mobiles, Tablets of varying configurations and a whole new host of public kiosks and interactive displays. If you're trying to operate an app based business in this environment then you don't want to focus on the mobile slice of the user experience. You want to think holistically to integrate all of these things into a coherent and compelling service. Whatever you like to call this, it is a platform for your whole business.

What do you need to operate a platform like this?
Something that visualises the complexity to literally let you get an overview of it all. Something that handles multiple roles and multiple devices in multiple contexts. You need a platform that is designed for multi-context first not mobile first. You need a 2012 view of the world.

So are you still stuck in a PC first world...or are you now stuck in a Mobile First world?

How are you planning your apps?

A web standards based model for AR

It's great to see so much discussion of an open web based AR bubbling
around. I think it's clear now that there is enough of a framework
across the different web standards that we can map out a clear skeleton
for web based AR. So that's what I'd like to present here. This is the
outcome of an R&D project we've had working on defining a model for web
standards based AR.

The site itself has a few goals:
- visualise how all the standards fit together
- let you see how your browser rates against this ideal
- provide informative links about each of the tests
- open each of the tests for community discussion

Part of this project was also to find a short word or phrase that people
can use to more easily describe what this is. "A web standards based
model for AR" is a bit of a mouthful. And if you say Augmented Reality
instead of AR well then that doesn't exactly roll off the tongue and
into the mind. In aiming this concept at a broader market we've defined
the overall experience simply as "web3".

"But web3 means...?!" I hear you shout 8) I know a lot of people argue
the Semantic Web is web3. And others say the Internet of Things is
web3. And there are plenty of marketing campaign examples in there too.
But I propose that this particular model is a structural change similar
to the introduction of the AJAX based service driven web 2.0 world -
with the natural flow on cultural effects that a structural change
brings. A change big enough that it is a generational step and not just
an incremental improvement.

Have a look and see what you think?

http://isweb3here.com?

It's still a "work in progress" and some of the demos aren't fully wired
up yet. In fact if you can suggest a good javascript game that's
multitouch friendly please let me know. We're also putting together
some more tangible demonstrations of what web3 can do and we'll provide
these as videos so people that can't access these features can see what
they're missing out on.

My hope is that if you are interested in an open web standards based AR,
if you are a developer or a browser vendor or a standards organisation
then you'll join in and contribute to refining this model to the
point that it is a workable and viable reference people can rely on.
Some of the standards that we're currently testing for may change. But
I think the overall functional model will roughly stay the same.  If you have feedback or constructive criticism then please add a comment below, post a comment on twitter with the #web3 tag or post a comment to the ARStandards.org discussion mailing list.

So why do I think this is a significant change?

The iPhone4, iPad2 and many of the Android devices now ship with all of
the required sensors.

- Microphone
- Camera
- GPS
- 6 degrees of freedom gyroscope
- Accelerometer
- Touch screen

And the required core capabilities.

- Hi-res display
- Broadband wireless network
- OpenGLES
- Audio output
- html5

So all the hardware and operating system elements are now easily
available in common consumer level devices. Not just commonly available
but widely adopted too!

Once browsers commonly support the cluster of standards mapped out in
http://isweb3here.com then really integrated innovation can begin. This
innovation can occur at the software level alone so it can occur much
more rapidly. And it can now be developed by the much larger
javascript-aware audience. These are two major multipliers of change.

audiovisualiser is a simplistic example of this
http://files.robman.com.au/audiovisualiser/audiovisualiser.html
Requires Firefox 4+

JSARToolkit is a great example of this.
See this page if your browser supports it:
http://fhtr.org/JSARToolKit/demos/tests/test3.html
See this page for more info: http://fhtr.org/JSARToolKit/

Beatdetektor is an audio example of this.
https://beatdetektor.svn.sourceforge.net/svnroot/beatdetektor/trunk/core/js/beatdetektor.js
http://www.cubicvr.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=72&Itemid=87

Facial recognition and other CV functions have also been demonstrated.
Service based http://demianturner.com/2010/05/facial-recognition-api/
Browser based http://gigaom.com/video/firefox-demo-facial-detection-within-videos/

In the web3 world, whole new levels of functionality and control can be
established just by visiting a specific web address or physical
location.

Now this is no longer just speculation about the future. All of the
different standards used in the http://isweb3here.com test have been
demonstrated as working in different builds of different browsers...and
your browser is tested live for them just by you visiting the site. All
of the devices listed above have the sensors and capabilities required
to support web3. Now it just seems like a matter of time until they
come bundled in a single web3 experience by default.

I hope this test can speed up this process a little.

So is this another tool like modernizr or caniuse?
No, in many ways this is the complete opposite of that. They are great
examples of developers struggling to deal with the complexity and
fragmentation that is out there in the device/browser market right now.
http://isweb3here.com is an attempt to address the root cause for this
fragmentation. An attempt to abstract this into a more standardised and
open model.

There are lots of API/standards issues to be resolved in each of the
tests. There are lots of security questions and performance
optimisations that must be addressed in general. And there are a huge
number of user experience, privacy and control questions to be resolved
too.

But to me it seems that the overall pathway for web3 is now pretty
clear. What do you think?

Posted June 26, 2011

using live audio data to drive your CSS in html5

I've been doing a lot of hands on experiments with all of the bleeding edge APIs that are all converging on AR...but more on that later.  Here's the outcome from one of these experiments.  It's too much fun not to share 8)

It's an html5 graphic equaliser where the audio levels literally drive CSS values to make the browser bounce to the music.  The example below splits the input data into 3 samples and uses values from those 3 data chunks to scale the height and width and opacity of 3 boxes.

By just changing the images and sound file and playing with a few config values you can create your own audiovisualiser too.

http://files.robman.com.au/audiovisualiser/audiovisualiser.html

NOTE: Requres Firefox 4.0+


This code is presented as a jquery plugin so you can easily add lots of different dynamic behaviours.  I'm also going to open it up even further to enable rendering plugins so common visualisations can easily be shared.  Just like this beautiful example here http://www.nihilogic.dk/labs/pocket_full_of_html5/

The code is really rough and the styles are not well thought out...but if there's enough interest I'll setup a github project etc.  But for now you can just download it and start playing.  Can't wait to see what people create.

Posted June 25, 2011

First ARDevCampSyd was full of win! #in

The first ARDevCamp in Sydney was a great event with 40-50 people attending throughout the day.  It was held at the Powerhouse Museum in their ThinkSpace providing interactive whiteboards, projectors and laptops for those who needed them.  Throughout the day we covered a lot of topics and there was a lot of interesting discussion and debate generated.

Photo by Halans

Early in the day we covered a basic introduction to Augmented Reality in general and discussed the difference between geo-located, marker based and computer vision based AR.  It also gave me a chance to rant a little about my views on the currently limited definition of AR.

@alexmyoung then presented an overview of the current state of interaction available in AR applications.  She covered the "4 key modes of AR UX" outlined on the http://AR-UX.com site and it was a great chance to review and debate how projective interfaces like Sixth Sense fit into this analysis.  This also raised some interesting discussion around gesture recognition, barehand computing and the opportunities for defining standard languages and norms in this space.

Then @DamonOehlman ran an interesting session on WebGL and I think a lot of people's eyes were opened to the opportunity that is rapidly evolving here.  We had some initial hurdles at the beginning to configure the browsers to support WebGL but quickly overcame that and were able to demonstrate the Mixing Reality demo along with some others.  This is a great match for where this technology is really at.  It doesn't work out of the box and the average web user doesn't even know it's possible...but without too much effort at all you can get some mind blowing content running in your browser.

Warren Armstrong also gave an overview of the (Un)seen Sculptures exhibition that uses Layar to present art from a wide range of artists at venues like the Sydney Opera House during the Vivid Festival.

During the afternoon there were a number of discussions on data.  @piawaugh talked about Open Data and Data Visualisation.  And of course people used this as a chance to raise their thoughts on Open Government and Government Data.

@anthonybaxter presented the work Google has been doing with Crisis Data with some tangible examples from Japan after the recent earth quake, tsunami and nuclear disaster triple hit.  He also discussed what they had learned from other crises like the Christchurch earthquake, the Australian bush fires and Haiti's earthquake.

@lukesnarl and Carlos from @phmuseum also introduced people to the new geo-located features of the Powerhouse Museum API which contains over 70,000 items.

The rest of the afternoon people spent hacking on various projects with a lot of people using http://buildAR.com to start creating layers like the #ARDevCamp layer@abolut_todd was even able to quickly take the list of Victorian Microbreweries provided by http://data.gov.au to create what is obviously a very useful layer 8)

We wound up the day with a quick play with the Parrot AR Drones and then all headed off for drinks at the Pumphouse which were very kindly sponsored by the team at Layar.

Out of the day came about 100 tweets which reached over 47,000 users.  Since then a number of people have also created some great blog posts about the day.

@shineslike created an interesting post that explores the really important topic of "who owns the virtual space in your museum".  This has already kicked off some interesting discussion.

@melhambo created a great post that captured her thoughts from the day and included some nice examples including the beautiful Sea of Tweets that I had not seen before.

And @nanoluke put together a much better summary of the day than I have done here with good links to all the relevant topics 8)

I'd like to thank everyone who came along and especially the Powerhouse Museum and Layar for all their support in making this happen.  We've got great plans for #ARDevCampMel and it looks like there's a lot of interest in events for Canberra and Brisbane too. 

And if you're organising an ARDevCamp anywhere in the world let us know so we can give you access to the http://buildAR.com account for the ARDevCamp layer so you can help people find there way there like we did.

PS: If you're interested in ARStandards then I'd recommend you checkout http://ARStandards.org which is holding it's third meeting in the next few days in Taiwan in parallel with the OGC meeting. Also checkout the W3C's POI Working Group which has just released it's first public working draft.

Posted June 14, 2011

manic...Manic...no I'm not MANIC!

I can't believe it's been over a month since my last post!  So this is more of a meta post as I haven't had time to write up a lot of the ideas on my TO-POST list.  Things have just been totally crazy and seems like they're getting even more so.  But I wouldn't want it any other way.

Here's a quick summary of what's been going on the last 2 months.

First, we were really happy to launch the full 1.0 version of http://buildAR.com at ARE2011  in Santa Clara.  We received a lot of great feedback and support and the new users keep rolling in.  It's fascinating watching what people are creating with this tool.  At ARE2011, I was lucky enough to pitch the app to Vernor Vinge, Will Wright, Bruce Sterling and Jaron Lanier - here's a post from Layar with a video of it all.  That was pretty daunting, but really exciting and they really got what we are trying to do - "democratise the creation of AR content".

While I was at ARE2011 I also presented a casestudy of our streetARt app that has attracted over 140,000 users from 194 countries in only 3 months...all with no promotional budget at all.  This led to a lot of interesting discussions and the number of artists creating new and interesting content specifically for AR is amazing.

To keep me busy with some extra tasks each week I have also been appointed as an Invited Expert on the W3C's Point of Interest Working Group.  We've just released the First Public Working Draft and the whole group is working hard to integrate a wide range of feedback and updates before the next face-to-face meeting in July at MIT.

On top of that, Sydney is literally pumping with the Vivid festival including art exhibitions, light projections and a wide range of live events (don't mention the Cure!).  We were proud to work with the Sydney Opera House to create the VIVID Live iPhone app that includes an event calendar with maps and links to book tickets, a cool interactive Sensory Snap section that lets you add a monster head to your photos and share them on Facebook, and live streams so you can watch the Sydney Opera House sails laser projections each night.  The usage is booming and everyone seems to be enjoying the app.

During the Vivid festival Sydney also has a wide range of tech business related events going on.  One of them is CeBIT and we were lucky enough to go along to the opening at the Opera House (again...don't mention the Cure!).  It was a great night and it was very entertaining to watch @KRuddMP open the event speaking fluent german - I really wish I were a polyglot.  It was even more entertaining (for us) to hear Vice Premier Stoner announce the award of the Collaborative Solutions grants.  MOB was in one of the successful consortia and our moveME project is creating an innovative Indoor Tracking platform designed for Museums, Galleries and Exhibitions.  The first implementation of this will be at the Lace exhibition at the Powerhouse later this year.

But things aren't stopping there.  We've got ARDevCampSydney coming up next weekend and are well into our planning for ARDevCampMelbourne.  We're frantically working to get an app ready for the Sydney Design Festival.  We've got a lot of great buildAR casestudies to publish so you can see how people are using it and a whole range of new features to release that will help us leap even further ahead.  We've also got a handful of other apps in development including a Mobile Price Comparison game changer and a cool app with @yiyinglu and @walls360.

So sorry for the interruption to my inane blog post ramblings...normal transmission should resume shortly (I hope).

PS: We've also finished defining a "compliance test" for the next computing paradigm...but more on that later 8)

Posted June 3, 2011

Comments submission on the OGC's Open GeoSMS Standard

Feedback/comments regarding the proposed Open GeoSMS Standard.
http://www.opengeospatial.org/standards/requests/76

PART A
1. Evaluator:

        Rob Manson
        Managing Director
        http://mob-labs.com
       

2. Submission:

        OGC 11-030 : Open GeoSMS Standard - Core


PART B
1. Requirement:

        Allowing support for alternate Coordinate Reference Systems

2. Implementation Specification Section number:

        Section 1 - Introduction of OGC 11-030 defines:
       
                "Based on the OGC WMS (Web Map Service) approach for
                expressing coordinates [2], the location information in
                Open GeoSMS uses latitude/longitude 2d expressed in
                decimal degree as defined in the WGS84 [3] coordinate
                reference system."
       
        Section 3 - Normative references refers to:
       
                [3] WGS 84 Earth Gravitational Model website, available
                at http://earth-info.nga.mil/GandG/wgs84/gravitymod/egm2008/egm08_wgs84.html
               
        5.1.3. Requirement 3: Location Parameter (Mandatory) defines:
       
                "The value of the latitude and longitude shall be
                described using the Decimal Degree format based on
                WGS84"

3. Criticality:

        Major

4. Comments/justifications for changes:

        The NGA's own definition page for WGS-84 states that it is
        "valid up to about 2010" - a date which is already in the past.
       
                The National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency develops,
                maintains, and enhances the World Geodetic System 1984,
                the reference frame upon which all geospatial
                intelligence is based.
                World Geodetic System 1984 (WGS 84)
                The World Geodetic System defines a reference frame for
                the earth, for use in geodesy and navigation. The latest
                revision is WGS 84 dating from 1984 (last revised in
                2004), which will be valid up to about 2010.
                https://www1.nga.mil/ProductsServices/GeodesyGeophysics/WorldGeodeticSystem/P...
                (Retrieved April 24, 2011)
               
        It's obviously pragmatic to use WGS-84 now while also allowing
        alternate Coordinate Reference Systems (CRS) in the future.
        Simply adding an optional CRS parameter would help to future
        proof this proposed GeoSMS standard.
       


1. Requirement:

        Allowing support for an optional Altitude parameter

2. Implementation Specification Section number:

        5.1.3. Requirement 3: Location Parameter

3. Criticality:

        Major

4. Comments/justifications for changes:

        As indoor location based services become more usable and more
        used the importance of altitude based parameters will become
        more significant.  Identifying the floor or level that a person
        is on will be key to certain services that have not yet been
        fully defined.  Allowing this optional third parameter would
        help to future proof this proposed Open GeoSMS Standard.

1. Requirement:

        Allowing support for an optional Uncertainty parameter
       
2. Implementation Specification Section number:

        5.1.3. Requirement 3: Location Parameter
       
        6. Example
       
3. Criticality:

        Major

4. Comments/justifications for changes:

        One of the major drawbacks with location based services
        currently is the variable nature of the accuracy or uncertainty
        of the coordinates provided by consumer level GPS devices like
        mobile phones.  In the example provided in section 6. of the
        proposed Open GeoSMS Standard document it would be very helpful
        for the towing service to know if the location provided was very
        accurate or only roughly within 200m.  If a user is indoors or
        even under debris, yet still relying on GPS data then the level
        of uncertainty can be significant.  In a rescue situation or
        when collecting forensic information this value can be even more
        important.  Since this value is often available it seems overly
        restrictive to exclude an optional uncertainty parameter.


SUMMARY:
The geo: URI format proposed in RFC5870 addresses all of the comments
outlined above.  Here is an example based on the examples provided in
sections 6.1 and 6.2 of RFC5870. http://tools.ietf.org/html/rfc5870

        geo:48.198634,16.371648,183;crs=wgs84;u=40

By contrast, here is the example URI included in section 6. of the
proposed Open GeoSMS Standard.

        http://maps.geosms.cc/showmap?geo=23.9572,120.6860&GeoSMS

This could be adapted in one of two ways to support the comments above.

1. add additional optional parameters
This brings the Open GeoSMS URI inline with RFC5870 by adding the
optional altitude third parameter and then optional crs and u key/value
pairs.

        http://maps.geosms.cc/showmap?geo=23.9572,120.6860,183&crs=wgs84&u=40&GeoSMS

2. extend the existing geo parameter with additional extras
This first adds the extra optional altitude parameter as a third element
in the comma separated section after the geo=
It then adds the crs and u parameters but instead of separating them
with the normal & it uses an equally valid ;
In these optional extra key/value pairs the = is replaced with a :
 
        http://maps.geosms.cc/showmap?geo=23.9572,120.6860,183;crs:wgs84;u:40&GeoSMS

Both of these proposed extensions would leave the example URI provided
in section 6 of the proposed Open GeoSMS standard as valid while also
allowing improved features, functionality and potential future proofing.


"ORDERING" NOTE:
I would also comment that the order dependency described in "5.1.2.
Requirement 2: Postfix String" and "5.1.3. Requirement 3: Location
Parameter" seems a little arbitrary and restrictive.  URI query strings
are generally treated as simple collections of key/value pairs with no
firm expectation that ordering will be preserved.  Many web based
libraries, proxies and tools may adjust this data so it seems risky to
impose an ordering requirement when it is not technically essential for
valid parsing.  For example the mere presence of the GeoSMS key in the
query string is just as informative as a &GeoSMS query string suffix.

"NO POST" NOTE:
I would also comment that only supporting GET and not POST is quite
limiting and may breach some security policies.  GET request parameters
often end up in access logs which can expose private location data in
unexpected ways.  Using POST as an alternative HTTP method should be
allowed and is a perfectly valid and standards compliant solution.

Taking these two NOTEs into account would result in a more flexible Open
GeoSMS standard that retains it's current structure while also being
more in line with existing web standards and approaches.

AR contact lenses...what would I want to see?

Yesterday @Layar, @MSFNext and @PSFK kicked off a twitter thread about research into contact lens based wearable displays linking to apaper from 2009 by Babak Parviz at the University of Washington.

Media_httpblogstechne_huhoa

http://spectrum.ieee.org/biomedical/bionics/augmented-reality-in-a-contact-lens/0

This is a really interesting project that keeps bubbling up every 6-12 months or so and the most interesting part is that they have actually created working prototypes.  These prototypes have only 1 single LED facing into the eye and are powered wirelessly via Radio Frequency energy.  A progress update on this work was recently published in November 2010 and seems to be continuing to develop.

Out of that online discussion came the question "So what would you like to see?".

Here's what I think would be an amazing first step...and the good news is that it's perfectly aligned with this work from the University of Washington.

I want to see the wifi all around me!

@timoarnall recently posted a video of this beautiful work that visualises the wifi around us...but uses light painting and long exposure photos.

What I'd love to have is a pair of contact lenses with an array of LED's facing inward to my eyes that converted directional RF energy from nearby wifi transmitters into bursts of photons.  This is the bionic eye equivalent of a crystal set radio and I think it would be a compelling first step to truly immersive eyeware.

The IEEE papers from the University of Washing team describe that the RF energy source they have been using already works around the 2.4GHz and 5GHz ranges that wifi works in.  They also list that one of the constraints is that the LED is so close to the eye that instead of a focused point it would appear more like a blurred light.  I think this aesthetic limitation could be used to effect making the wifi signals around you look like soft focused fairy lights...a truly magical experience.  This uses the natural energy that is floating around us already and would literally open people's eyes to the invisible world around us.  We only see a tiny fraction of the entire electromagnetic spectrum and expanding our ability to perceive will change our sense of who and where we are.

But this is obviously just a very primitive first step...and the whole movement of bionic eyes and computer vision is really starting to gain pace and soak into the mainstream psyche. 

Last year in Melbourne I got to see a very entertaining presentation by @eyeborg who is a one eyed film maker from Canada.  He's collected a team of specialists who are helping him build a wireless camera that he can wear in a prosthetic eye format.   I'd definitely recommend checking out his story...especially the concept of "pimp my gimp".

And on the ABC news tonight alone there was a story on the progress being made by Greg Suaning and the Bionic Vision Australia research team...soon after followed by a story on Facial Recognition and how the Federal Police are concerned this is eroding their ability to run undercover campaigns.  Followed soon after by a story on Catalyst on Bionic Vision.

So this whole path seems to be quickly changing from futuristic sci-fi into early adopter technology.

How would you like to change your senses?

Color is more like the next Google Wave than the next Facebook

In my last post I had a little rant about what I think the hidden cost to Color's users are.  This time I'd like to flip to the other side and discuss some of the flaws I think have been baked into the overall Color business model.  Things that will either inhibit true user engagement or drive the cost of scaling beyond sustainable levels. 

I know it's a cheap shot but I think some of these decisions could turn people from pronouncing Nguyen as "rhymes with win" to an emphasis on the hidden Ng "rhymes with no-win".  These points are based on the long and drawn out rationalisation that he's been presenting online via interviews with people like Jason Calacanis.

It's pretty long and full of ads so I'll try to refer directly to the key points in the timeline to save you the effort of wading through the commercial hype 8)  But you may like to watch the whole thing to form your own opinions.

Implicit Social Network vs GPS accuracy
5:00-5:30 You're building an implied social network, correct?
5:30-6:30 Explain to users what is different about an implied or implicit social network versus an explicit one

The key ideas behind multi-lense and the elastic network are interesting and are definitely trends that location aware mobile devices have unleashed.  This relates to a concept called "PolySocial Reality" outlined by Applin & Fischer.  But we've done a lot of work with location based applications and one of the biggest challenges is the poor accuracy with GPS based data.  To say that you can simply use an algorithm to bind two people because they both took photos at near the same lat/lon coordinates provided by a mobile device is nothing but naive.  Indoors, especially in conference venues and party venues which are being touted as the killer use case for Color, the GPS location can often be off by several kilometers...and definitely by hundreds of meters.  This means that in the real world this data is just not reliable enough to build this type of elastic network bond.  It may be entertaining in the short term to find people 1km or more down the road pop up in your photo stream...but I don't think this is the basis for a killer new algorithm.  This is just a reality of the physics involved in our current GPS satellite system.

Or even worse...people can just trick their phone into lying about their location and quickly gain access to other people's Color streams as someone recently did with Bill Nguyen's personal stream.

Post-PC does not mean ex-PC
24:00-25:30 So in terms of mobile and the non-PC world, you're not opposed to a PC being involved in this process?

This comment astounds me and makes me wonder if Nguyen really does understand the post-PC world?!  People are definitely moving to mobile devices as their primary network experience...but they are not doing this exclusively.  In fact people are just adding more and more screens to their lives...not transplanting one for the other.   Here's an example of the experience that many people would first see of the app - an album link that could be shared via twitter or facebook - http://color.com/s/KtYwGC  While it does detect for PC and iPhone/Mobile...it really does little except attempt to drive you to download the app.  There's no built in tools for sharing and no honey pot to draw you in to really engaging with the content.  So I think Color's model is not a truly post-PC world...just an app-centric view of the world...and this window is closing very quickly.

Nude drunk photos could save Facebook
33:30-35:00 How do you get rid of the inappropriate pictures? How do you avoid becoming Chatroulette?
36:30-37:45 If a user takes photos that are even remotely provocative, they're not going to be allowed?

From a cultural point of view his comments here kinda make my skin crawl.  The fact that this new company thinks it should be able to decide what images I can and can't use in my social network is more aligned with Libya than with the internet.  But from a business model perspective this just seems like lunacy.  If this platform scales to the types of numbers and flows of media that they're suggesting then the human workload involved to constantly monitor it would seem to be unsustainable.  Even if they can automate this with image recognition software...there's a huge element of cultural judgement that software won't be able to handle for quite a long time.  Take this image for instance...image recognition software is quite likely to pick that up as a flesh toned inappropriate photo.  While some people would probably agree...many more would just describe it as hilarious.  And is it appropriate for some to be removed from their elastic network just for posting this type of image?
 

Media_httpfailfamilyc_fliut

http://failfamily.com/view/awkward-family-photos/33

Even if they can automate this process for photos...scaling this for videos is even more complex and expensive...and in the meantime very costly in terms of headcount and issue management. 

The way Nguyen describes this lockout process as "breaking your $600 phone" as if this is a good thing is even more amusing.  This very design is more likely to alienate people from his platform rather than make it attractive.   But this structural business model flaw also leads directly on to the next point.

No "personal" data doesn't mean no privacy issues
27:00-28:00 Question from the audience: Jeff Clapp wants to know about how the data mining aspect and how that can play out long term. What do you plan on doing with all this data?
28:00-29:00 What do you know about the user? Do you know that a photo comes from an iPhone because of the phone's ID?

Just because you don't "currently" collect my phone number, email address or other details doesn't mean that there are no privacy issues.  My personal social geometry of where I go, what I do and what I point my camera at can be much more informative than my name or email address.  This is why I think the valuation was so high in the first place.

29:00-29:30 What happens if you lose your phone? Do you also lose your implied social network?

How can someone trying to build a platform of this scale simply not think through this kind of fundamental issue.  Not only do people lose phones...but thanks to Apple they upgrade them on a VERY regular basis.  And as I discussed above, people shift from their phone to their tablet then to their PC and home media centre and back again throughout the day.  This strange myopic monoculture view of the world just seems very poorly thought out.

Show me the money
43:00-44:15 Is advertising the monetization plan here? Where do you think the money is, or do you not care as you build to scale?

And this brings us back to my first post.  You cannot monetise this platform without collecting more behaviour based information about me.  The example Nguyen uses of restaurants and shops implies that they'll not only build a model of when I have visited that store previously...but also what I have bought or been interested in.  This is way beyond just sharing photos and is the heart of the commercial layer of this business model.  It just seems self evident that the goal is to "get big fast" based on novelty and media sharing...then once they have scale to monetise this firehose of deeply located data through populating your stream with highly targeted ads.  At a high level this concept doesn't sound too extreme...but when you look at the type of data matching and analysis involved to achieve this then it shows you how invasive this model really is.


So, do I think this is the Facebook killer it is being pitched as?  Well not unless a lot of these structural flaws that seem baked into the overall business model can be addressed.  And if they're not then I think it's much more likely to go the way of Google Wave.  Wave was an interesting, fresh new approach to collaboration and messaging.  But the fundamental adoption model was broken.  Unlike Gmail where you could immediately use it to communicate with anyone who used email...Wave was restricted so you could only interact with people who already had Wave accounts.  This inhibited it's adoption rate and ultimately led to it's death.  It seems like the same type of flawed modelling is at work in Color. 

What do you think and how would you address these flaws?

The Color of money is YOU!

This week a new social photo sharing service called Color launched with probably the biggest hype I've seen in a loooong time (perhaps since 2000).  Much of this was not driven by the core concept of the service itself, but by the back story around raising $41 Million in investment before they even had a product.  So much so that there's already been quite a strong backlash on the internet with people making fun of the whole hype-cycle process.

Here's a pretty funny spoof of a Color pitch presentation 8)
https://docs.google.com/present/view?id=ajdtctfhv4hn_264g329gwcc&pli=1

CONFLICT OF INTEREST DECLARATION
First I should declare that we've developed and released a number of location based photo and video sharing services e.g. streetARt - the first Augmented Reality based street art application that's now being used in over 180 countries.  These services were built for a hell of a lot less than $41 Million and as a developer this type of bubble behaviour just leaves a bitter taste in my mouth.  So feel free to take what I say here with a grain of salt.


Within only a couple of days of launching there has already been a lot of analysis both positive and negative posted online  with a lot of discussion around what the idea is and how it works...so I won't revisit that in depth.  And two days after launch Color is already even doing the rounds talking about major upgrades to deal with the "Loneliness" issue it faces.  But what I haven't seen yet is an in-depth discussion of how this valuation could have really been created and what the implications of this really are for the users.

So now that you've stopped laughing about a company raising $41 Million before they even have a product...lets look at what Sequoia and Bain may have thought the real value is.

The idea that is new is not the location based photo sharing...but what Color have dubbed "your elastic network".  They use the location data from your phone to track your movements, then map this data against data from other users and use this to build your social graph.  The more time you spend near someone else the stronger your implied social bond is...so the more prominent the media they create will be presented in your view of the app.  This is an interesting twist, but it is also quite a large assumption and it will be fascinating to see how this plays out as the usage scales.

Yet I think it is this idea that really highlights the "potential value" that a VC might see.  Not specifically the idea...but the data that this unlocks.  Over the last few years there's an interesting turn of phrase that has developed that I think relates really well to the new free Color app.


If you're not paying for the product, then you ARE the product.
Paraphrased from here http://www.metafilter.com/95152/Userdriven-discontent#3256046

Which has led to lots of interesting discussion around this whole concept.
http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1684732


This "elastic network" concept to me seems to be an attempt to create a reason to justify tracking and monitoring your every move.  In our applied user research have found that people will share almost anything if they believe they are getting a value exchange that makes it worth their while.  And I think that is the goal for the underlying value proposition of Color.  But this is a massive shift away from just adding a location to some of your blog posts, tweets or photos.  This is an attempt to monetise your personal social geometry.

As soon as you mention location and location based services/apps to marketers they always get quite excited and often seem to bring up the horrible idea of MacDonald's broadcasting a voucher to you as you walk past their door.  Checkin services like Foursquare have started to monetise this potential by training people to log when they arrive at a location in exchange for a pixelated badge of honour.  And now Groupon, the darling of tech-investors is looking to extend that using it's "I'm Hungry/I'm Bored" product extension called Groupon Now.  But Color's pervasive location tracking is taking this to a whole new level and automates the whole process so you don't have to checkin, log a location or take any real action except "being places".  This is not a trivial change that should just be glossed over.

So I'm left wondering if the new Color users have really thought about this new value exchange they're about to engage in and if they really are getting good value for the information they're sharing?

In an interview in Business Insider Nguyen makes it clear that they're not a photo sharing company, they're a data mining company.

Color is not about photo sharing.
It's a new way to build spontaneous social networks -- and collect massive amounts of data about what people are doing and where they're doing it.
http://www.businessinsider.com/exclusive-bill-nguyen-qa-2011-3

This doesn't make me feel better!

What do you think the core value that justified this amazing pre-product investment is?  After the hype settles down is this an app that you'd really use?  And how do you think Color can evolve this from a standalone mobile app into a fully fledged online service?

Filed under  //   bubble   color   color.com   startup   the product is YOU   valuation   value exchange  

The mobile revolution is creating divergence - convergence is dead!

4 years ago I put together a paper to outline why I thought divergence was a more important concept than convergence. 

"Convergence is 'coming to an end'.  But what happens after that?"


I presented it to a number of audiences and was almost universally met with a blank stare...followed by lots of blinking.  It's quite a subtle and complex point to convey and I'm pretty sure that I didn't do a very good job of it 8)  But the world has come a long way in the last 4 years and I think people intuitively are better prepared for this discussion now...so I think it's time to revisit the concept.

"The historical roots of convergence can be traced back to the emergence of mobile telephony and the Internet"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convergence_(telecommunications)#History


Now the dominant experience of "being connected" is through the mobile phone...supported by the PC.  The discussion around convergence seems self-evident and is almost never mentioned anymore...except perhaps in meetings with old skool telco's.  It seems like the discussion of the Internet of Things (IoT) is quickly becoming a common mainstream topic.  Mobile controlled "things" are now being presented as the basis of new business models and there are enough smartphone users for this to be truly disruptive.

In my original paper I included a short sentence that tried to describe the key idea behind divergence:

"It's like ripping the control panel off your phone, TV, home security system, bluetooth headset, etc. and actually putting it in the network.  This gives you more power and control over these objects - anywhere, anytime."


Recently I came across a company who seem to have embraced this idea and have made this core concept the heart of their overall brand...only they've communicated it a lot more eloquently.

http://www.peel.com


Their promotional video is a really polished way of showing the potential.  How you can literally peel the control panel or interface of a remote control or TV and then engage with it in a whole new way through your phone or tablet.

But surely this is just the beginning...and once you've changed the way you think about controlling your TV then this opens your mind to a world of other opportunities and ways to interact with all of your appliances and networked objects.  The term "universal remote" now has a much broader meaning.

Yet the concept of divergence isn't just about control, it's about all forms of network tracking and monitoring.  Recently a company called Green Goose wowed the crowed and even managed to raise $100k in investment live "on stage" at the Launch conference.  Their concept is to put small wireless sensors with one years worth of battery life into small stickers that you can put on things like your toothbrush, dog collar, running shoes or any other object.  Then you can track when and how often those objects move and the whole concept is being pitched as a "game platform".

http://greengoose.com


This takes the "life story of an object" concept laid out by services like http://itizen.com and adds "wireless sensor" based steroids to bring them squarely into the age of the Internet of Things.  Now any object can talk to the network and more and more can be controlled via the network each day.  Once we have passed this threshold then this data can be re-used, re-visualised and mashed up to create all sorts of insights into your life and behaviours or even create whole new behaviours...and games.  This means our digital shadow just expanded massively, with all the privacy and ethical issues that raises too.

So what other things in your life would you like to peel the interface off so you can control it from anywhere?  How is this going to change the apps and products that you make and how people think about them? 

http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/iphone-or-android-app-manage-tesla-model-s


How do you think this is going to change the whole concept of "sharing"?

http://blog.pachube.com/2011/03/real-time-radiation-monitoring-in-japan.html

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/technology/2009/06/things_that_tweet.html